expert_buildaBracket_articlemain.jpgEvery March, college kids, office drones, and degenerate gamblers alike drop everything to lay a few bucks on the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. We enlisted USA Today sports analyst Danny Sheridan to dissect four years’ worth of tournament trends and give you a toe-tapping edge on the Big Dance.

Round One:  Beginner’s Luck
Always take a No. 7 seed over a No. 10 seed and a No. 6 seed over a No. 11 seed, as these teams are 12-4 and 10-6 against the spread, respectively. What’s with the lopsided pattern? No. 10 and 11 seeds score impressive records in crappy conferences, but No. 6 and 7 seeds earn mediocre records in brutal, big-name conferences.

 



Round Two: Getting Dicey
Teams who aren’t favored heavily (from -1.5 points to -7 points) are a money-burning 8-24-2 against the spread. This record might be due to a lack of prep time (coaches don’t know who they’re playing until a day before the game). If a team happens to be a double-digit favorite, go ahead and lay down some hard-earned cash—they’re 6-2 against the spread.

Sweet 16
Cinderellas usually meet their makers in the Sweet 16: Underdogs coming off an upset win in round two have a 9-22-1 point-spread record. On the flip side, teams coming off double-digit victories in round two are a profitable 18-9 against the spread in this round.

Elite Eight
Most No. 1 seeds will likely make it to the Elite Eight—almost 70 percent have survived to this stage since the tournament evolved to a 64-team format in 1985. But don’t bet on anyone favored by 1.5 points or more here, as teams with this point spread are a putrid 3-11-1. Why? The short weekend turnaround between rounds three and four.

Final Four
By this point every schmuck with a dollar to his name is wagering big money. Expect to see exactly two No. 1 seeds in this stage (it’s happened 11 times since 1985), and always play it smart by picking teams that are favored by 3.5 points or more (4-1 against the spread).

NCAA Championship
For the past seven years, the favorite has gone 6-1 against the spread. The only underdog winner was Carmelo Anthony’s precious (and vitamin C rich) Syracuse Orangemen over the Kansas Jayhawks in 2003. Don’t go busting your bracket now—pick the favorite and lay the points in the title game, then go see your banker with that armload of dough.